Australian writer of Montenegrin descent en route to a polyglot European port at the head of the Adriatic mid-2011 shipwrecks instead on the SE Asian Equator. 12, 36, 48…80, 90++ months passage out awaited. Scribble all the while. By some process stranger than fiction, a role as an interpreter of Islam develops; Buddhism & even Hinduism. (Long story.)
Thursday, December 31, 2015
Chair
Wednesday, December 30, 2015
True Fan (Indian Cricket)
Lunch crowd thinning quickly at K.V. First few spoonfuls of the rasam surveying the tables one was about to say a chap always felt warm in that place! Such has been the delightful cool of recent days here on the equator. With only short bursts of rain not much evidence of the nor‘westly monsoon. A couple of days ago a bold and brilliantly illumined moon low in the east and slow-rising. A boy at the Haig bus-stop the other night must have sighted it a day or two before, because he was drawing mummy's attention to a corner of the sky where he was hoping for re-appearance. Rather touching: there were at least two of us on the island taking note. With some opportunity in the respite, Shanmugam rounded for a couple of chats. Lad had noticed the absence last few days and well-knew the reason. Sly smiles. Thankfully the white collared Colorado shirt had been donned for lunch. At Al Wadi in the morning there had been close scrutiny from Zaharuddin at the counter. A passing look in the mirror preparing for the second outing provided a shock when the loose collar of the KL Islamic Museum tee showed big-toothed Ni's marks of passion from the day before. Odd for Zaharuddin, a father of four young children, to see on a professional Westerner and an intellectual of sorts. (In younger years Zaharuddin had studied Arabic seven years in Syria and then one more year in Egypt. We were fixing for a meeting and chat.) Cricket it was again with Shanmugam; other subject matter quickly ran dry. The New Zealand lad Guptill had made a quick-fire half century the day before, almost in world record time: a mention on ABC online. Fellow didn't know how close he was till the last few balls, Mugam knew. Pity. Record gone begging. Wasn't the lad an all-rounder?... Yes, earlier in his career. Now solely a batsman. Not a Tamil by any chance?... Brought head-lolling assent. What, Tamil? Guptill a Tamil?... Ah. Born in India was he?... No, parents or grandparents; immigrated. In earlier conversations Shanmugam had bemoaned the kind of deracination that occurred with immigration. Often enough at Komala a Chindian entered who would have no idea of his heritage. With Shanmugam's assistance one was slowly beginning to discern. Shanmugam twisted his head like a pony in those instances. So Guptill almost a world record. The performance would have made it into Tabla on the Friday, had it been realized, whether or not young Guptill acknowledged his ancestry. Another thing too on Guptill was it? Shanmugam's heavily chewed English could not be comprehended immediately. When Mug bent close to deliver one was often surprised by the level of vocab. It was only pronunciation that continued to snag. Twice incomprehensible here brought Mugam around the table into the narrow passage in order to show his sandalled foot... Oh. Oh. Young Guptill missing one or more toes from one of his feet? Really?... Well golly. It had not stopped the young champ's progress; almost a world record. Claimed by the people from the land of his forebears, however young Guptill might conceive of himself. Bright Tamil star. Shanmugam was a proper aficionado. Australia v. West Indies meanwhile at the G? Last time Mugam looked Windies were seven down second innings. Not much of interest there, though there was more than one Indian name in that line-up too.
Monday, December 28, 2015
Somebody - Nobody
Us And Them cursive in gold on black carried by the beefy lad at the phone and accessories store on the walk-through for the aircon at City Plaza. Cheap items even in the higher design range, small businessmen can don a new, crisp and unfaded one with tight collar once a week. The scribe too tired to record a number of others introduced into the neighbourhood the month. Second language composers up in HK or the studios across the Pearl delta one guesses, magpie pickings in the exploration of the master culture/foreign language. Urban Groove New York a variation on the commonplace theme borne by a mainland lass getting on the bus at upper Geylang. Vandal Is Going To Destroy The World black gothic represented by a younger local still trying to find his feet in hipsterdom and of course struggling in the strangulating environment. (This lad wants to offer his girl advice on some recent trouble in either her friendship or work group.) Quite absent at any of the Komala Vilas tables half an hour later lunching. Interestingly, one finds the Indians far less prone to such faltering billboard tees; whether locals or the imported labour. Garish colour and thrown-together patterning are enough to take the fancy of this cohort. It is the local Chins, and then to a lesser extent the foreign talent from the region—not the labourers—striving for the Euro-Ameri leg-up to somewhere/anywhere. The locals, once Chinese, in the steamy hot air now feeling for something other. Straining. Identity, precious commodity not automatically conferred even with money and other top-shelf signifiers. Casting around, marooned on this castaway island. I AM SOMEBODY they wanna declare, they will assert. A tee often presses the case that cannot be made otherwise. FULL OF HIDDEN TALENTS Tick behind prison bars white on black said a lot—young fella at the Guillemard stop opposite Versailles condo in the triangle with Waterina and Sunny Views returning…. Somehow the ol’ fave here had unaccountably slipped from memory: NOBODY IS PERFECT/I AM NOBODY, mostly proclaimed by dowdy dads and prematurely aged teens foot-dragging along the pavements and through the malls. Painful wry acknowledgement that can make a observer well and truly wince. Luck Is Where PREPARATION Meets Opportunity weekend wear on a clean-cut, fresh-faced local aspirant no-one will believe of course, purchased and carried hopefully. The success of the Sing’ model thirty years flat-out in the making, leaving only the final riddle unanswered: Who/What are we? Aren’t we somebody too? Government PR sleeves rolled-up working overtime as usual.
Friday, December 25, 2015
Necessary Counters
Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Untouchable
No need get your nose outta joint. None at all. Far worse earlier in the afternoon the pimp down at Fei Du blaring gruffly, ordering his two young Viets around, the woman serving and his partner in crime/procurer, who spoke the girls’ language. As if filling out the caricature, at one point the man actually trumpeted a porcine HONK-HONK without any prompting. The slight surprise shortly after at the Arab cosmetic place at Tanjong Katong Complex was in the fact that it was another woman serving today, this one younger, unmade-up, heavier and taller. Lady in this instance got around the problem there in her own particular way. Soaps, shampoos, creams; &etc. A small $1.20 goats milk proved excellent for shaving; rich lather. (Likely also valued for whitening.) The older, made-up woman with the tattooed eye-brows when she receives the cash will tell you, Put it there. The last time seemingly pointing at the sloping register keys, which made for a bit of awkwardness for coin. The woman today perhaps sixty; sister-in-law or sister from another mother, possibly. Though she could not be recalled, for the transaction at the register she seemed to be prepared. Immediately knew the price of the article, without checking. From her left a clean, unused, plastic curry container, the dish with the inner grooves that many of the Indian places used for condiments. Directions not offered, likely recalling the kaffir regular.
Sunday, December 20, 2015
Maulid (Prophet's Birthday)
Truly good listening here currently Gabby, this crew really getting somewheres. Get yrself some of it in the next day/two, a ML specialist like yerself has a gap in the acquaintance if you don have this in yr knowing. Plenty good; strong, sincere voices. Lucky people, they'll all come away the better for it tonight and sleep well. Only thing I can compare it to is the male yeshiva boys evenings in St. Kilda, Melbourne, more raucous in that case. This has a finer lilt. Bathroom window open on the lane. Reckon they're indoors somewhere and the prayer and song of praise passing through the numerous walls, descending from one of the upper storeys it sounds like. Gee, it's good. Women would be proud of their men watching and listening. It's all male that one can hear (they tell me women add their voices from the side). How do they keep it up so long? Choir must be sectioned. Reckon it's to the effect, — God/Allah raise him up.... Or maybe, Our dear Allah, thy will prevails, light our ways, show the path LALA LUUHHLUU.... Might be some clapping or feet stomping at the end here too a little. Yes, they've wound down. The Ashkenazis would stomp energetically as part of their performance. Lovely. Cars filled the lorong. On the corner at the eatery the poor old Chins will be bent over their beer and pork crackers. Lifted the spirits of this listener opposite. How much more the participants themselves! Gone half eleven. Made them thirsty and hungry. There they are now quietly milling in the girls' outdoor lunch area in their white tunics and caps, soundless from behind this glass here and I'll warrant down on the ground among them. They're spent, pleasurably exhausted.... Almost eleven o'clock, mix of young and older men; some making off to their cars and the buses. A certain inevitable envy.
NB. In the approach to the Prophet's birthday Muslims gather for these recitals, often in school halls and community centres rather than mosques. In this case Thursday night a girls' madrasa in Geylang.
Friday, December 18, 2015
Puppies For Sale
Thursday, December 17, 2015
The Widow-Shark
Tuesday, December 15, 2015
Juicy
Friday, December 11, 2015
Condo-Rondo Once More
Thursday, December 10, 2015
Àodàlìyà
The young woman was a Mainlander. Easy to tell straight off. Frilly dress, hair-band with the pink ribbon, keenness most of all. Stringing out an impossible conversation she recalled one of the show-girls in the Saloons from the old Westerns, attempting to cadge something from an unlikely looking, weather-beaten old cow-hand.
Australie was simple in Bahasa. Anywhere in Jakarta and even the far flung islands you would be instantly understood. Anywhere in Singapore you would have thought, where a local Chinese was concerned.
The girl was one thing; but how could a Hokkien, born and raised in Singapore, even one in his sixties, not have a clue about "Australia"? Remarkable.
The Drink-waiter's help had been enlisted.
Nada.
You gotta be kidding man!...
Many of the Chinese could sing-along with the old anthem: God save our gracious Queen, long live our... no problem at all. Old McDonald and the other school-room favourites they often knew pat. Most of them adored all things British in this outpost of the former Empire. Pictures of Big Ben, old red double-decker buses and Westminster sold tea-towels, t-shirts, shopping bags, condos, you name it.
This guy attempting to help out the Mainland lass with her difficulty, blinking behind his glasses.
Australia. Australie. Au-Stra-Lia. ORS-tralia.
Shook his head. Shook again. Reminded of slow school-kids in class bullied by dragon-breathing monsters at the blackboard back in the day. Back in the day of morning assembly, flag monitors, anthems. Oddly shared memories in Singapore. Not this fellow. Missed out somehow. Didn't think to draw him an outline.
The girl one could completely understand. Sydney. Melbourne. An upright hand bounding over the table-top Hop-Hop-Hop.
Nothing, sorry.
What was left? Kevin Rudd? Not likely.
Where she was from impossible to get either. Not Shandong, no. (Many of the Mainland gals were from the back-woods of course) Wuhan no. Beijing? Xi'an? (This was pointless. First rank cities was not where these girls hailed from.) Flustered, Shanghai was forgotten.
We had to give it away. Couldn't be helped. The girl herself admitting defeat. It was not even that she wanted to score. Some of her compatriots, the majority, put up with the slave-rates and long hours rather than turning to the game. A little afternoon exchange here was all.
Like the foreign construction workers, the working girls were part of a large industry. Likely the two industries closely allied in a carefully planned polis like this, same syndicates operating. Plenty of hardship and desperation in the region available to mine for entrepreneurs lacking scruple. In the back lorongs at night at this Chinese end of Geylang the girls stood together in their native groups: dark Thais, short Indos, pencil-thin Viets. There were laws now, regulations, raids every so often. Innumerable girls in their mid if not early teens all the same, as the regular prosecutions demonstrated.
Audio on Google Translate later indicated the gulf. Close, yet so far. A mouthful of pins possibly the best recourse.
Originally penned 2012, a re-draft was published on the ABC RN Earshot website Oct 2015.
No Hipster
Young chap couple tables down difficult to follow. Sitting with similar age companion while opposite them a little group had stopped. Three scarved women middle-aged and a young boy pausing in their slow amble. Sisters, with the mother difficult to pick among them. A number of us watched the group casually. Nothing in particular; not whatever. Whereupon the young man calls over, gestures across to one of the women with a folded bill in hand. From two tables along one had a clearer view than the recipient—a lavender Two flashed. No doubt, clearly. And the surprise evoked equally clear, though the woman did not drop her jaw, nor gape. Like, what?... Ah? Ah.... Slight chin rise and head swivel he. Like, the child. Something in that direction, of that kind. No word, all gesture of the most minor kind; one or two rows further back nothing whatever could have been discernible.... Fifty-four full months tomorrow witnessing, every second or third day something of the same kind. Tonight the particular circumstances proved a little intriguing. The group was most certainly not begging; nor did they look in particular need. Chap had surmised correctly however: toward the bottom of the socioeconomic pile. The sprint to the meritocratic winning post would leave this group short. More expressiveness in the momentarily puzzled recipient here; comparatively blank benefactor. (Cheap accommodation at the losmen in Jogja—about 4.5 times cheaper than Four Chain View Hotel in Geylang—enabled something of the same daily walking the streets down in that town.) Pony-tail confirmed on departure; mid-late twenties, thin and not exactly a hipster. But by the same token, nor would one have guessed devout.
Monday, December 7, 2015
The Asian of the Year
The Straits Times here today announced their Asian of the Year.
Doubtless stiff competition after an eventful year, in the end with just a nose in front at the post the winner was found to be the local favourite, Mr. LKY.
".... won the world's respect, in life as in death." (March deceased.)
Chap at the breakfast table this morning mulling over the announcement seemed serious in his suggestion that there had been a secretive cyronic procedure undertaken immediately after the state farewell at a facility within the Kissinger Institute, which the man had deep in the granite of Colorado, Rocky Mountain high. (The cremation story put about in order to deflect any possible terrorist threat.) An unknown too until this morning's report: the ripples of mourning stretched far across the globe of course, easy to understand. That India lowered its flags to half-mast on the day of demise was easy to anticipate with Mr. Modi such a strong fan; but what did surprise was that apparently the same honour was offered in NZ. The Kiwis, secret fervent admirers (in the year of another World Cup triumph). Others that must have followed suit were not mentioned in the morning's report.
The original Asian tiger in this year of the old goat.
Friday, November 27, 2015
The Muezzin
Landlord Adhi's mother identified the man positively. Yes, she was sure, Pak Yatin. A little shy smile at the challenge. Sorry to appear doubting Ibu.
Where had those sandals gone?... In the sarong ten metres along the gang was quite alright, numerous men attended Nurul Huda in sarongs.
Nurul Huda Masjid in Gang 2, Sosrowijayan, this one particular muezzin was a standout.
A few days before Wahyu the day-shift manager at the losmen had suggested a chap named Pak Yatin. Adhi the landlord confirmed: the chap in question could only be Pak Yatin.
The problem was a definite match for the particular voice. There were now three or possibly four muezzin making the various calls from Nurul Huda, one at least a newbie introduced in the last few months. The new chap and the old mainstay were the clearly distinct voices; one other certainly in the mix and possibly two.
No pattern was evident. How the men organised themselves was unclear. A roster of some kind was doubtful.
With his prima donna straining the newest, younger voice positively irritated. Earlier in the year Nurul Huda had been free of this kind of put-on, all the voices emanating from older men reaching through mature contemplation for the call to their brethren. This new chap suggested he had opened a direct line to the beyond. It made painful listening; made one positively wince in the room and out along the paths.
Given the example of the other this fellow was a travesty. The chap seemed to be auditioning for a recording contract, the volume on the amplifier always turned up to the max. In the case of the other, Pak Yatin—if Yatin was truly the man—the volume was often erratic, sometimes barely audible in the beginning, and at other times oscillating as the call progressed.
The stand-out muezzin was not on top of the technology. An old guy, a grey-beard one suspected, one with plenty of inner fibre retained. Landlord Adhi's uncle who lived in back, a kind of classic Byzantine saint in aspect, would have been perfectly fitting were the man not in fact an old Javanese animist. (At first meeting earlier in the year he had wanted the matter known.)
The reconnoiter that evening following Landlord Adhi's mother's identification bore no fruit. Looking into the mosque from the gang the men within could not be differentiated. In the far corner the pulpit stood with microphone attached. From the gathering of men it was impossible to tell who had just delivered the call. One still hesitated on a touristic pass through a mosque, especially a small neighbourhood house of worship.
The reason Pak Yatin was dismissed at first sight when the man of that name unexpectedly turned up one morning for some repair work at the losmen was because he was too young to fit the bill. Unlikely-looking in person and too young.
For a number of weeks on this last visit the chaps passing along the gang out front of the losmen were scanned. Two or three weeks previously when the hunt began in earnest Wahyu had suggested an older fellow who always wore a songkok, with hair grown out behind. In his seventies, Wahyu guessed. The man usually wore a sarong when he attended the mosque and called the azan, Wahyu added. Promising.
There were a couple of prospects penciled as they passed one way or the other along the gang, one thin old chap in particular who looked about right coming from houses somewhere toward the station. A slow-stepping fellow like him, spare frame, still healthy, with fairly thick grey strands a few inches behind seemed close to the mark.
The man sought was perhaps an ex-smoker; the remaining strength of voice suggested the habit had been overcome. Retired, an honoured paterfamilias; quiet and unassuming. If one could lay eyes on the man before the microphone the sight would be something to behold.
To date the only muezzin who had ever been seen in action was at another small neighbourhood mosque in a narrow gang not far from Nurul Huda. Chap had been glimpsed passing the open doorway and footsteps needed to be retraced. The example of this man had suggested that muezzin required some privacy in the mosques in order to perform his particular duties. At this mosque a five or ten minute walk on the other side of Sosro the muezzin had stood in the front corner turned to the wall, microphone in one hand and the other providing some firm bracing it appeared clutching the back of his head just above his shirt collar.
Amplification in the last decades meant muezzin no longer needed to climb up into their minarets to deliver their calls to the four quarters.
Like any great vocalist, this particular man's phrasing at Nurul Huda was unique, quite inimitable. (There was in fact a hint that the prima donna had given it some study.) Some part pleading might have been involved in it; at his age the question of personal salvation, while not necessarily the specific burden carried, must have been bound up. One heard a predicament, a certain fraught position implied in the rendition of the verses sounded by this muezzin.
Allahu akbar / Allahu akbar.... Hayya 'ala salahh / Hayya 'ala 'l-falah.
God is great / God is great.... Come to prayer / Come to victory
In this man's vocal posture there might have been sufficient enough sense of individual worth and dessert, a not unreasonable hope maintained; that however of course remained entirely for Allah to determine. Certainly there was no room for complacency in this muezzin's stance. Modesty, frankness and perhaps above all submission such as one had never heard in a Christian context.
The man was compelling. As an Intercessor, if that were possible in Islam—which seemed not to be the case, despite the prayers of others always being valued and actively sought—a chap like this would be highly esteemed. Under the sway of the man's rhythms and elongated notes one stumbled in pursuit. Tellingly the year before, Faris the Arizonan convert had revealed it had been an Iranian muezzin in the Shah's time who had finally brought the American over to Islam. (No-one ever converted from Quranic readings, Faris had added.)
After three or four other voices in recent days, on the Friday the maghrib had been delivered by the man, Pak Yatin. All were in agreement.
A day or two prior a workman had appeared at Red Palm beginning repairs on the sagging eaves out front over the entryways. Mid-year a couple of other chaps had worked on the division of a room at the losmen, constructing a party-wall of bricks and mortar, a pair of bathrooms, floor-tiling, architraves and jambs labouriously chiseled from the timber. For the present Adhi could only afford aircon in one of the rooms. The pair of workmen were fine jovial sorts, the chief with his moustache and flatcap a kind of character leapt out from the pages of a children's picture book—Happy Jack the candle-stick maker, whose product was delicious sherbet. The repairman for the eaves was another kind of fellow.
Not far into his fifties, a ready and able all-rounder it was easy to see, Yatin. Sturdy and capable, moderate and well-mannered; a tradesman from two or three generations past in the Western case.
Slight squint; at a brief encounter on his second day numerous gaps in the teeth were visible. Typical warm smile, from a face that looked incapable while the man was wielding his pliers.
Men like Yatin got on with their tasks, working steadily and surely. Pak Yatin had at the same time a young face and one deeply cut and creased. In the usual way, in coming days he would be difficult to recognise in passing.
This could not be the man, Wahyu was immediately told. Too young for one thing.
Only thirty himself, Wahyu could not be expected to judge ages. This man the young would-be screenwriter had in his mid-sixties. (In another case Wahyu had been out fully twenty years.)
Pak Yatin could pull rusty nails alright. Swing a hammer. You could not imagine him concentrated at the microphone up front at the mosque producing those tones that had one in such thrall.
Sometimes a child's lullaby sounded in that voice. Many evenings one was pinned to the bed listening for the reach, waiting to hear how far it might rise and fetch. Some kind of preamble for the usual surat for the maghrib in particular carried this uncanny lulling, in
uniquely soothing tones.
Twice this had been clearly and positively identified as Pak Yatin. His signature hoarse voice, landlord Adhi's mother indicated on one occasion by a clasp of her throat.
Pak Yatin still smoked, though not incessantly; during the works he was never seen with a cigarette dangling, as had been the case for the pair earlier in the year. One Friday when Pak Yatin worked under lamplight at Red Palm he was found later in a camouflage tee passing the front of the losmen on his way to the mosque. A hard body man. Shortly after he was unexpectedly encountered seated on the steps opposite the children's playground smoking.
Positive identification. Landlord Adhi's mother had been in that house opposite Nurul Huda almost forty years. Mystery solved; a face and form could be put to the voice.
Almost four months hearing the calls from Nurul Huda and studying them in some kind of fashion. In some sense it had been the muezzin who had drawn one back to Red Palm three months after the first visit, 4AM wakings notwithstanding.
One had long accepted the liability of a tin ear. (What must Mozart's famous discrimination in quarter tones have meant for life experience?) Still there was no expectation of a spanner in the works near the beginning of the final week of the fourth trip to Jogja.
Tuesday 24's dzuhur call approaching noon. As the voice sounded the noisy fan on the wall of the room was as usual turned off in three not-too-rapid clicks.
Almost immediately the realisation struck.
It was clear an error had been made. A confusion. This now was not Pak Yatin. Yatin stood to the side of this particular man.
The new aircon room at Red Palm was windowless. There were glass bricks over the bed-head providing some pallid light, but no ventilation and no direct access to outdoors.
Better reception could be achieved by kicking open the magnetic catch on the bathroom door for the small ventilator in the ceiling that funnelled purer notes into the room.
Pak Yatin was in a direct line with this muezzin, a descendent and pupil. The confusion was now understandable.
Out on the front veranda Wahyu and Landlord Adhi's mother confirmed what had been immediately and abundantly clear. No, this was not Pak Yatin. This was….
....Ahmadwaji needed some short grappling.
The description of another sarong man, minus long strands behind in this case.
Sandal search again. Again the thin Polynesian sarong doubled in front was perfectly decent no matter which young girl might be passed in the gang.
Once more two or three figures lurking within Nurul H. made identification impossible. It seemed too that the azanwas not delivered from the pulpit. As most of the older men here often spoke almost no English, putting the question was not possible either.
Waiting-out the quarry was the only recourse, with Wahyu happening on hand.
Ahmadwaji would be along shortly. (For some reason Ahmadwaji needed no dignified title.)
Wahyu did not attempt to mask his boredom. Ahmadwaji held even less interest for Wahyu than Yatin. The wait went on. One could be unlucky, Wahyu half-apologised, suggesting the man may have taken a snooze indoors, what with the rain started.
Wahyu was surprised and a little bewildered at all the fuss. For Wahyu the quality of voice of the muezzin was unimportant. Wahyu had a particular ustad for his weekly Quranic classes, a respected and trusted man still in his thirties who gave what Wahyu considered wise and vital counsel. Yatin the repairman and Ahmadwaji were neither here nor there for Wahyu. Such men might be only functionally literate (Yatin had not a word of English); none of them could approach the understanding and insight of his ustad, Wahyu maintained.
A passing shower in the event.
— Come sir. Come.... There, you see?... The old man.... No, the one standing with cigarette.
Two men but one cigarette. It was a familiar face. If Yatin had been slightly, ever so slightly, disappointing in his person, the figure of Ahmadwaji had nothing whatever to do with that remarkable force of delivery in his call to prayer.
A scarecrow figure thin and slight, flap-eared, blinking behind his glasses and stooped. Later the old photographs of blind Gus Dur the former President came to mind.
On the way to lunch a slow march past the mosque offered a close examination.
More rain to come, the man Ahmadwaji agreed in a sparrow voice, returning English to the bahasa he had received.
With another there Ahmadwaji had been scanning the clouds. Some evenings Ahmadwaji sat on the steps opposite the mosque smoking and watching the children’s kites riding a breeze that was imperceptible on the ground.
Pak Yatin had been acknowledged for his striking calls. In the case of Ahmadwaji one had held back.
Yogyakarta, Indonesia
Sunday, November 22, 2015
Touched
After some calculation at Beringharjo this afternoon Andi the dishwasher suggested eight for the cloud burst today. (Only lightest grimis, drizzle last number of days.) Setting out for Semesta mid-morning the usual diviner in the gang up from the Losmen reckoned three at the earliest, the same as his erroneous prognostication the day before.